Newsroom

November 19, 2014

The US Dollar - Novus Ordo Seclorum

Neil Azous of Rareview Macro presented a medium-term outlook on the US Dollar and included an unconventional framework to analyze it.

Most of us hand over dollar bills every day without ever really looking at them very closely. They are too familiar. But if you pause to look closely at the one dollar bill, you will see, right below the one-eyed pyramid, the Latin phrase “Novus Ordo Seclorum”.

The literal English translation of that is “a new order of the ages.” Taken from a book by the Roman poet Virgil, it first appeared on the Seal of the United States, and made its way onto the currency in 1835, where it has stayed ever since. Virgil was not a man to use words carelessly, so when he wrote it, he must have intended to emphasize “new” and, therefore, put it first in the sentence and in front of “ordo.”

November 7, 2014

Forget stocks—here’s where the real action is now

As macro advisor Neil Azous of Rareview Macro wrote in a recent note: “It is important to note that a lot of professionals have deployed more risk to currencies and new risk to commodities. So their ability to add a long position in equities is now lower and no one wants to buy these highs.”

October 13, 2014

Oil Slicks for Junk Bond ETFs

“Texas is the anchor to shale production, employment growth, positive real estate trends, and overall positive moral. With Crude Oil at or below the cost of production for many projects, the State with the highest economic multiple needs to contract,” said Rareview Macro founder Neil Azous in a research note.

“The consequences of that are still unknown in many respects, including the financing impact on High Yield credit, Master Limited Partnerships (MLP) and the like. Of note is that investors up until now had not factored a lower crude price into spaces that have low liquidity like junk bonds and MLPs. This is a canary in the coal mine for High Yield,” notes Azous

October 13, 2014

Neil Azous interview on ETF.com with Drew Voros “Avoid Bonds When Playing Strong Dollar”

ETF.com Editor-in-Chief Drew Voros spoke with Neil Azous about current conditions in the financial markets.

ETF.com: How does an investor approach this new era of a stronger dollar relative to most global currencies? I’ve read an argument where if you’re long on, say, the SPDR S&P 500, you’re already long the dollar. Do you agree with that?

October 6, 2014

Global Macro Outlook - The Disinflationary World

Neil Azous, Founder of Rareview Macro, made his debut on Real Vision TV. Paul Krake, Founder of View from the Peak interviewed Neil Azous and Robert Savage, CEO of CCTrack Solutions. This is the third segment of a three-part series that focused on the 6-12 month outlook for global macro investing, including economics, strategy and policy.

October 6, 2014

Global Macro Outlook - Part II

Neil Azous, Founder of Rareview Macro, made his debut on Real Vision TV. Paul Krake, Founder of View from the Peak interviewed Neil Azous and Robert Savage, CEO of CCTrack Solutions. This is the second segment of a three-part series that focused on the 6-12 month outlook for global macro investing, including economics, strategy and policy.

October 6, 2014

Global Macro Outlook - Part I

Neil Azous, Founder of Rareview Macro, made his debut on Real Vision TV. Paul Krake, Founder of View from the Peak interviewed Neil Azous and Robert Savage, CEO of CCTrack Solutions. This is the first segment of a three-part series that focused on the 6-12 month outlook for global macro investing, including economics, strategy and policy.

September 19, 2014

Dollar Has Longest Win Streak Since 1967 on Divergence

“The dollar is the No. 1 trend across all asset classes going into the end of the year,” Neil Azous, founder of Stamford, Connecticut-based research firm Rareview Macro LLC, said in a phone interview. “It’s back to trading interest-rate fundamentals.”

September 11, 2014

US Corporate Bond Chatter: Higher Rate Fears Ahead of FOMC

The U.S. dollar is “more of a stock earnings impact story” at this point rather than a “credit widening event,” said Neil Azous, founder of Rareview Macro LLC, a Stamford, Connecticut-based research firm. “If you look at a basket of U.S. stocks that receive the majority of their revenues onshore versus offshore, you would see a large divergence,” he said. For example, U.S. centric names like Wal-Mart or Costco are outperforming compared to stocks like Priceline that receive a lot of earnings in euros.

“Equity analysts are historically behind the curve when modeling the potential impact FX swings can have on corporate earnings,” which is perhaps “a key weakness when FX volatility actually increases or there are large forecast changes by FX analysts, such as what is occurring now,” he said.

Azous added that he does “not see evidence that the stronger US Dollar is fundamentally impacting corporate credit yet as there is a long way to go before default rates rise, especially if higher yields are partially related to a stronger economy. In order for credit to be impaired fundamentally the universe that is 4-7x levered would need to see Fed Funds back above 2% as a result of a change in monetary policy. Otherwise, the argument for spread widening now is more about a lack of market liquidity and the generational long position in high yield than anything else.”

September 4, 2014

The Cult of Loss Aversion: A Call to Rethink Risk in Global Macro Investing

Neil Azous, Founder and Managing Member of Rareview Macro, wrote an opinion piece titled “The Cult of Loss Aversion: A Call to Rethink Risk in Global Macro Investing”. The article was first published on FINalternatives. It sets out Neil’s view on why the macro strategy is struggling at the moment. Obviously it is not his place to tell some of the world’s most influential managers their business model is flawed. Instead, he called on those investors who fund these strategies to look back to the greats of the industry, such as Soros and Druckenmiller, and recognize that this may be the time rethink some of their parameters for investing.