July 6, 2015
June 22, 2015
If you’re on the hunt for the next big, near-term investment opportunity, you may want to consider Europe, Japan and (believe it or not) crude oil.
Those were the picks from three investment experts who were asked to weigh in, at the recent ETF.com Global Macro Conference in New York City, on the pockets of the market where they see the most attractive opportunities right now. While many in the audience agreed that Japan and Europe were compelling picks, not many expected crude oil would make the cut.
While crude oil isn’t “a big fan favorite,” according to Neil Azous, founder and managing member of advisory firm Rareview Macro, it’s an area that he believes represents a strong, near-term opportunity.
Azous, who also publishes the daily newsletter Sight Beyond Sight, says crude oil is mispriced right now. By the end of 2015, he believes it could return 20% to 30%, moving from $60 in the U.S. to $70 to $75, without bringing rigs back online. He adds depending on the structure that you use to get exposure to oil (such as ETFs or derivatives) there is an argument to be made that that investors can extract risk premium in a non-correlated fashion.
Modern Trader (Futures Magazine)
June 19, 2015
For those who have been in this business for quite some time, you will be familiar with Futures Magazine, a cornerstone property of The Alpha Pages like FINalternatives. Their new flagship publication, Modern Trader, was recently introduced and hit newsstands last week. The full publication can be viewed HERE (Password: prophets). Our article “Riding The Dollar Bull” begins on page 28. We were pleased to be a centerpiece of this inauguration and want to wish the CEO Jeff Joseph and the Editor-in-Chief Daniel Collins the best of luck in this new endeavor.
June 12, 2015
“As the Europe Central Bank plows ahead with its own monetary easing program, we’re starting to see the results, with Europe outperforming the U.S. and much of the world in terms of economic recovery and stock returns. So it’s not surprising that investors have begun to pile into the region.
We talk to two global macro experts—David Garff, managing director of California-based Accuvest Global Advisors; and Neil Azous, founder and managing member of Rareview Macro—for their takes on the region and what investors should be looking at and concerned about.”
April 28, 2015
“We would encourage those professionals who love to hate AAPL to book themselves a series of therapy appointments,” said Neil Azous, a market advisor with Rareview Macro. “This story for Apple just has a lot of legs to go higher. And it’s very difficult when you look at the combination of their guidance, their capital redeployment plans, and their margins, to be pretty negative on the stock, when you think about it in the medium-term.”
April 15, 2015
While this year’s 1.2 percent gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average may encourage bulls, the gap between the benchmark gauge and the performance of the railroad, trucking and airline companies that comprise the transportation average is widening. It’s a sign of a sluggish U.S. economy, according to Neil Azous, the founder of research and advisory firm Rareview Macro LLC.
“It’s confirming the weak economic backdrop of the first quarter that’s spilling over into the second,” said Stamford, Connecticut based Azous. “When you add that transportation signal into the rest of the data, the Dow Theory is not portending a bounceback in the data.”
“The weakness in the transportation index is a very good leading indicator that suggests further underperformance in the Dow both on a relative basis to U.S. small caps and to international equities,” said Azous.
March 16, 2015
Neil Azous, Founder and Managing Member of Rareview Macro, published his thoughts on what he believes is the main driving force in Europe right now, the supply/demand conundrum in European bond markets, and how that all spills over into US interest rates markets. This is not a trading piece or recap of the events but an analysis to show how a mix of history and the implementation of monetary policy will work towards accelerating growth in Europe.
March 12, 2015
“While we do not know what the immediate aftermath would involve, it is prudent to remember that the European Central Bank (ECB) could reduce the deposit rate even further than the current -0.20% at any time. You can debate the reasoning, timing or the probability all you want but the fact remains this ‘tail’ exists and somewhere that ‘risk’ premium needs to be discounted,” said Rareview Macro founder Neil Azous in a note out Wednesday.
February 16, 2015
The Fed is “much closer to hiking then putting it off,” said Neil Azous of Rareview Macro, a firm that advises large investors. After all, “it is hard to argue from an economist’s perspective that they shouldn’t at least start the process. Their models are telling them to, regardless of the problems abroad in Europe and Asia.”
Indeed, if Yellen does give a hint in the weeks ahead that a June rate hike is possible, “the fixed income market would re-price swiftly and painfully against the consensus long position,” Azous said.
February 10, 2015
On February 10, 2015, Neil Azous, Founder & Managing Member of Rareview Macro, returned to CNBC and joined Futures Now host Jackie DeAngelis and guests to discuss the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Neil Azous believes that investors dismiss the possibility of a June rate hike at their own peril.